Oct 30, 2018

By Julie Schrei, Director, Political Affairs, Food Marketing Institute
Blue wave

Early voting is already underway in many states. The talk of a “blue wave” coming in November dominants many 24-hour news stations. So, what is a “wave” election? Reality is no one can agree on what a “wave” election actually is. Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report said that wave elections occur when the out-of-power party wins, “significantly more seats than they need to win control.” In the U.S. House of Representatives, that could happen. Given the challenges Democrats face this cycle, that’s extremely unlikely to happen in the U.S. Senate, governor’s mansions and state legislatures.

So, is this blue wave coming? There is no doubt a wave is being formed, but the question remains: how will it break? Will it be a breaking wave and collapse on top of itself, leading to only modest Democratic gains? Or will it be a plunging wave and explode when it reaches the beach, dramatically changing the dynamics in Washington and statehouses?

Historically, we know that the President’s party loses on average 25 seats during a midterm election. Ballotpedia.com did an in-depth analysis of historical elections and applied their definition of a wave election to the 2018 midterm:

  • U.S. House- Democrats gain 48 seats
  • U.S. Senate- Democrats gain 7 seats
  • Gubernatorial races- Democrats gain 7 seats
  • State legislative races- Democrats gain 494 seats

The gains the Republicans made in 2016 will be like all waves and eventually recede, being pulled back into the ocean.

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